2027: A Tug at Coalition and Coercion of Political Forces

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"Unreal friendship may turn to real; But real friendship, once ended, cannot be mended"- TS Eliott

It is unlikely that the frenzy of defections, endorsements and coalitions currently mapping Nigeria's political landscape ventilates the foregoing truth-condition .

What we have is a political climate assailed by ideological deficiency and identity profligacy. Politicians cut the image of weather cocks; always obeying the wind of personal comfort.

That's why seemingly irredeemable political breakups are easily patched-up when cheap fancies cohere or inviolable relationships are breached when inordinate interests collide.

Most times, local politics is , according to Ernest Benn, "the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy."

Save class suicide which politicians avoid like a plague, we are now at a point where all prescriptions from wrong diagnosis such as gang-ups , betrayals, opportunism, coercion and sycophancy could be ingested.

A portrait of self-righteous political leadership is clear when the on-going manoeuvrings are viewed against the foreground of recent developments such as the orge of Emergency Rule in Rivers State, intractable intra- party rancour and near- decimation of opposition parties.

From these prisms, the themes of egotism, arrogance of power, fickle loyalty and phoney friendship professed by T.S Eliot's "Murder in The Cathedral "are promptly illuminated.

And, with "suspended" Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara's wry "willingness to sacrifice his political life " in tow , "martyrdom", the primary theme of that verse drama which centers around tragic power struggles between, King Henry II and Archbishop Thomas Becket in 12th-century England is, patently , at play. Gov. Fubara's recent visits to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu(PBAT) now support the view that his utterance in that regard was a Freudian slip, though.

Interestingly, the dizzying pace of realignment of disparate forces and perceived gravitation towards a "One Party State" presents historical and contemporary contexts worthy of appraisal.

For one thing ,forms of political realignments have always been a regular feature of politics.

The death roll which cross-carpeting inflicted on the Parliamentary Politics of the First Republic(1960-1965) notwithstanding, the Presidential System of government of the Second Republic(1979-1983) did not fare better.

At the outset of the Second Republic in 1980, effervescent Dr. Kingsley Ozumba Mbadiwe who had long fallen out with his political godfather and former President of Nigeria, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe (Zik) was able to facilitate an alliance tagged "Accord Concordia" between his ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and Zik's Nigerian People's Party(NPP).

With an alliance that earned the NPP the Speakership of the House of Representatives, the third main party, Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) had to be content with providing viable opposition.

Of course, the 'Accord Concordia" ended up anything but cordial. As things stand today, the curtain is rising on the drama of "real and unreal friendship" in the theatre of Nigeria's absurd politics.

A regular cast of largely self-serving politicians are traversing the country to forge alliances and coalition of "the aggrieved".

On the one hand, some short-changed or vindictive members of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) arrow- headed by former Governor Nasir el Rufai and prominent losers of the last presidential election are coming together to change the narrative in 2027.

Some other lily- livered or opportunistic politicians from opposition parties are decamping and anchoring at the shores of ruling party-on the other hand.

The movement of some governors and legislators from main opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and New Nigerian Democratic Party(NNDP) to the ruling APC bear loud testimony to a season of high- octane politics.

In the wake of this development, many are quick to interpret the decamping of incumbent Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State along with former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa,the vice presidential candidate of the PDP to the APC as a seismic shift of alliance.

The shockwaves and the undercurrents of the defection of the entire political apparatus of a long standing PDP stronghold -oil rich , Delta State- could signal either a bandwagon effect or a dampener to pre- 2027 politics in the south -south region.

Already, Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State has signified intention to support the President's bid for a second term of office. It is also quite apparent that emergency rule has made the ground fruitful for an APC harvest in Rivers State.

All of a sudden, APC's "broom" is sweeping effectively even as critics argue that the ruling party , through subtle intimidation of opposition politicians is merely "sweeping the dirt" into its house . Whether the defectors are dirts or darts would be determined by the voters in 2027.

Ironically , it seems the broom , has become a safe haven , a provider of bigger shade under which political troubadours can luxuriate and baggage- burdened pilgrims could purgate.

In the meantime, the PDP, the Umbrella, must be cursing the storm that shredded its figurative "cover for all."

The fabrics of friendship and forbearance may now be threadbare as former Governor Nasir El Rufai , a poster boy of the 2023 APC presidential victory feels sufficiently disgruntled to align with the presidential candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.

The quality of friendship and loyalty that such a relationship of convenience can produce stands to reason. The new romance between Atiku and El Rufai could yet be dogged by serial divergence of political interests that could validate accusations of betrayal against the latter.

It is widely believed that El Rufai displayed ingratitude to Atiku's gesture of bringing him to limelight during their PDP cohabitation. Wherever the arguments go, Coalitions are a welcome dividend of democracy.

A cue from the New Deal realignment of the 1930's in the United States shows how the party system was reshaped. Historical account reveal that "The Great Depression acted as the catalyst for a transformation of the party system that moved the Democrats from minority to majority status at the national level". The New Deal Democratic coalition that put Franklin D. Roosevelt in the White House and the Democratic Party in control of Congress combined support from the working class and low income groups.

For reasons that obscure flashes of patriotism with flushes of politics of regionalism, vendetta, entitlement and hunger for power, interest groups from the North such as League of Northern Democrats (LND) have embarked on an anti-second-term onslaught against President Bola Tinubu.

Following a recent meeting of LND, chaired by the former Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekarau, the group announced its decision to align with another Opposition Coalition Group, led by former Senate President, Senator David Mark.

At the end of their well-attended meeting, the convener of the LND, Alhaji Umar Ardo told the press that "transitional political process" has set up two subcommittees to facilitate their strategy. He said that former Cross River Governor Liyel Imoke is to lead the committee mandated to "assess the feasibility of fusing into an existing political party". The second subcommittee is headed by former Governor Rotimi Amaechi who contested for the APC presidential ticket against PBAT.

Amaechi's committee is to consider registering a new party.

Herein lies the sticky wicket for the group which experienced its first disharmony at its maiden conference when the Jigawa State delegates feuded on leadership.

Perhaps, the APC is not yet sufficiently challenged by the antics of coalition politicians because they know that strategic alliances, while offering numerous benefits, also come with potential disadvantages.

APC would also have known the esteem it enjoys from the masses if there was a mid-term election - like it obtains in the USA, the harbinger of the Presidential System of Government.

But having trudged through a familiar slippery slope in 2015, they are aware of that the odd bedfellows in these alliances would have to deal with conflicts of interest, cultural differences, position sharing formula, trust retention and difficulty in coordinating and integrating operations.

Curiously, PBAT who did everything to secure the support of the North, including running on a Muslim -Muslim ticket in 2023 is now the butt of the region's discontent.

Many analysts have posited that the bonhomie between Tinubu and some northern elites soured because they felt disadvantaged by the depth of economic reforms and scope of federal appointments. It is on the score of such parochial sentiments, that the Messianic resolve of the coalescing groups to rescue Nigerians from economic hardship is suspect.

With the reputation of Northern elites as skillful negotiators of power and the advantage of electoral numbers, the application of these pressures may be no more than an arm-twisting political gambit. As if by the quirks of post-colonial political power supremacy, the North always retained the moral and electoral authority of choosing presidents of Southern origin - even when their geographical zone has rejected them.

Following the pattern during the election of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999, the North, gave PBAT 5.346million votes from a total of 8.794 million votes that handed him victory in 2023. He got 2.752million votes from the North Western zone alone.

So, can PBAT ignore the coalition threats from the North? Perhaps, the recent endorsement, by the APC, of the president's 2027 second term ambition is more of a reaction and less of a response to the strong-arm negotiation tactic of the North.

A more responsive approach would be to ease the burden of PBAT's economic reforms on Nigerians.

If APC chose a path of coalition to wrest power from "almighty" PDP in 2015, the persisting economic situation aggravated by reckless display of wealth by the ruling class present a perfect opportunity for opposition group to replicate the same feat against the incumbent government.

Realigning or coalescing groups must however retain the will to repudiate the vices of selfishness or vindictiveness in order to unseat a government practised in the art of forging a complex consensus.

It is probably the inherent favour-dispensing clout of the federal government in a harsh economic environment that sterilises opposition and gives vent to the speculation that APC is intent of running a One Party state.

This proposition appears to be a lame excuse to justify betrayal of the trust of the masses by conflict- ridden and under- performing opposition parties.

Sentiments apart, the absence of, or non-subscription to, ideological beliefs has blurred all political divides. In other words, Nigeria has always operated a democratic culture defined by many tendencies but a single reality to corner the national patrimony.

Jenrola, a Seasoned Journalist, writes from Lagos.