Mac Engel: After NCAA settlement, TCU, Baylor and Big 12 look ahead, hoping it all holds

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Mac Engel, Fort Worth Star-Telegram

FORT WORTH, Texas -- For the major athletic departments that plan to continue to play in the highest level of college sports, the recent House v. NCAA settlement includes a few key provisions that are vital to the schools, but will be crushed in court.

The case against the NCAA would be so easy to win that even a lawyer who graduated with an F-minus from the Clown College Technical School for Morons, and is 0 for 87,341 in court, would win.

The most important ruling for NCAA member schools is that they can now "share" a maximum of $20.5 million in revenue for the 2025-26 year with all its student-athletes. That number is expected to increase by 4% each year over the next decade.

For TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas, most of the Big 12, the ACC and even some schools in The BigSECTen, the $20.5 million is a challenge that's not a problem. It's a lot, but they can do it.

The problem isn't real yet. The problem is that imaginary number on top of a fixed figure that will "level" (wink-wink, cough cough) the playing field within the power conference structure. No one thinks that's going to hold.

Next NCAA lawsuit is inevitable

In less time than you can say "billable hours," a group of women filed an appeal of the NCAA's settlement; they are arguing that the ruling violates the Title IX gender equity statute, and are challenging the back damages portion of the multi-billion settlement.

Most people within college sports planned for a suit to be filed under the guise of Title IX. The bigger concern is the inevitable appeal of the part of the settlement that allows for student-athletes to be paid individual NIL deals above $600 that have to be cleared by a clearinghouse, Deloitte.

This is where big schools, like Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and others, will have an enormous advantage; the ability to create opportunities for players beyond that $20.5 million.

"NIL Go" is a well thought-out fantasy. It's what NIL was originally intended to be for student-athletes. In theory, a student-athlete is approached with an endorsement deal above $600, and submits the proposal to a portal via "NIL Go."

The potential deal must be submitted for approval by a third-party organization, Deloitte. The contract is examined, and if it's "legitimate" and commensurate with industry standards, it will be approved.

What will be rejected are contracts that are essentially, "Jock sniffing alum pays the running back $250,000 in exchange for breathing." This is what the NCAA and its member schools want to avoid. Because it's not NIL. It's just more pay-for-play, which is what the revenue sharing supposedly addresses.

If a school is caught trying to exceed this $20.5 million with deals on the side for players, there will be punishment.

New TCU athletic director Mike Buddie said this week that both he and many of his colleagues are hopeful that the first time this happens, the punishment will be so severe it will put a stop to side deals. Unlike in the past, when the NCAA would handle investigations and penalties, in this new model it will be handled by the College Sports Commission.

This is the part of the settlement that schools and conferences fear will not only be challenged in court but they will end up losing.

If a reputable business or a person believes it's good business to pay a student-athlete $1.2 million in exchange for signing one football or doing one Zoom call with a potential client, why should they be prevented from completing the transaction?

Operating above the $20.5 million

In this current unappealed world, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and the majority of the schools that play in Power Four will allocate most of the $20.5 million to the two revenue sports, football and men's basketball.

They're going to have to find more, and in a era where "donor fatigue" is a common expression, asking for additional funds is exhausting.

"We've got donor fatigue now, because I've got so many friends at four places that I coached that they go ask the same (donors) for money," former Texas and North Carolina football coach Mack Brown said back in February before the Davey O' Brien awards banquet in Fort Worth. "They'll say things to me, like, 'I'm not the only guy that's alive. I need caller ID to quit taking your calls.' "

At a place like TCU, or Baylor, there are only so many of those wealthy people who not only have the money but want to spend it on sports. They're all typically older, and are accustomed to people asking them for money. They all have thresholds.

For these schools, the challenge will be to create opportunities on top of the $20.5 million. That means finding a younger generation of donors, and recruiting locals, or more alums, who want to pay student-athletes for whatever reason.

They're going to need it, because the fixed amount of $20.5 million is a lot, not going to be enough, and a ruling that should work in their favor will be crushed in court.